Reading Time: 5 minutesIntroduction: why sentiment belongs to election forensics Election forensics is often associated with numbers: turnout, vote shares, invalid ballots, polling-station anomalies, unusual statistical patterns or inconsistencies between official databases and polling-station records. These are essential elements of electoral verification. However, election results are not produced…
Kategorija: Monitoring medija
Sentimentalno vaspitanje u Srbiji: kako medijski jezik oblikuje izborni teren
Reading Time: 5 minutesUvod: zašto sentiment pripada izbornoj forenzici Kada se govori o izbornoj forenzici, najčešće se misli na analizu rezultata: izlaznost, glasove po biračkim mestima, nevažeće listiće, neobične obrasce u distribuciji glasova ili neslaganja između zapisnika i objavljenih podataka. To je važan, ali samo jedan deo slike….
Clouds over Serbia: How Media Language Shapes the Electoral Terrain Before Election Day
Reading Time: 6 minutesIntroduction: election forensics begins before election night When election integrity is discussed, public attention usually focuses on election day and election night: whether polling stations opened on time, whether polling-station records were completed correctly, whether votes were counted accurately, and whether official results match independent…
Oblaci nad Srbijom: kako medijski jezik krivi politički teren pre izbora
Reading Time: 5 minutesUvod: izborna forenzika počinje pre izbornog dana Kada se govori o kontroli izbora, pažnja se najčešće usmerava na izborni dan: da li su biračka mesta otvorena na vreme, da li su zapisnici pravilno popunjeni, da li su glasovi tačno prebrojani i da li se zvanični…
What statistics can and cannot say about election language
Reading Time: 13 minutesThe final part of the series explains how to interpret the “Blockaders/Chaos” and “Vučić/Stability” patterns without overstating the evidence, but also without ignoring its importance. 1. From models to interpretation: why the final step is the most sensitive In the previous three parts of the…
Šta statistika može, a šta ne može da kaže o izbornom jeziku
Reading Time: 12 minutesZavršni deo serijala objašnjava kako tumačiti obrasce „Blokaderi/Haos” i „Vučić/Stabilnost” bez preterivanja, ali i bez zanemarivanja važnosti nalaza. 1. Od modela ka tumačenju: zašto je završni korak najosetljiviji U prethodna tri dela serijala postepeno smo gradili analizu. Prvo smo objasnili zašto se politički značajne reči…
From graphs to models: are election-period spikes statistically systematic?
Reading Time: 13 minutesFormal models confirm that the intensity of political terms increases during the election period, but also show that the two rhetorical frames follow different dynamics. 1. From descriptive findings to formal testing In the second part of the series, we saw a clear descriptive picture….
Od grafikona do modela: da li su izborni skokovi statistički sistematski?
Reading Time: 11 minutesFormalni modeli potvrđuju da se intenzitet političkih termina povećava u izbornom periodu, ali i da dva retorička okvira imaju različitu dinamiku. 1. Od deskriptivnih nalaza ka formalnom testiranju U drugom delu serijala videli smo jasnu opisnu sliku. Okvir „Vučić AND Stabilnost” imao je veći ukupan…
Two election frames in numbers: “Blockaders/Chaos” and “Vučić/Stability”
Reading Time: 10 minutesDescriptive analysis shows that the “Vučić/Stability” frame had higher overall volume, while the “Blockaders/Chaos” frame was more explosive and strongly concentrated around election day. 1. From introduction to results: what descriptive statistics tell us first In the first part of the series, we explained why…
Dva izborna okvira u brojkama: „Blokaderi/Haos” i „Vučić/Stabilnost”
Reading Time: 9 minutesDeskriptivna analiza pokazuje da je okvir „Vučić/Stabilnost” bio učestaliji u ukupnom obimu, dok je okvir „Blokaderi/Haos” bio eksplozivniji i snažno koncentrisan oko izbornog dana. 1. Od uvoda ka rezultatima: šta nam deskriptivna statistika prvo kaže U prvom delu serijala objasnili smo zašto je korisno posmatrati…