Forenzika izbora

Reading Time: 6 minutesIntroduction: election forensics begins before election night When election integrity is discussed, public attention usually focuses on election day and election night: whether polling stations opened on time, whether polling-station records were completed correctly, whether votes were counted accurately, and whether official results match independent estimates. These are essential questions….

Reading Time: 5 minutesUvod: izborna forenzika počinje pre izbornog dana Kada se govori o kontroli izbora, pažnja se najčešće usmerava na izborni dan: da li su biračka mesta otvorena na vreme, da li su zapisnici pravilno popunjeni, da li su glasovi tačno prebrojani i da li se zvanični rezultati poklapaju sa nezavisnim procenama….

Reading Time: 3 minutesElectoral integrity does not begin and end on election day. It is a cycle in which every step must leave a trace: voting, counting, official records, data publication, independent analysis, institutional review and, where necessary, legal remedies. If one part of the cycle is missing, public trust weakens. If the…

Reading Time: 3 minutesIzborni integritet ne počinje i ne završava se izbornim danom. On je krug u kome svaki korak mora ostaviti trag: glasanje, brojanje, zapisnik, objava podataka, nezavisna analiza, institucionalna provera i, kada je potrebno, pravni lek. Ako jedan deo tog kruga izostane, javnost ostaje u zoni sumnje. Ako svi delovi funkcionišu,…

Reading Time: 3 minutes1. Uvod Nevažeći listići su naizgled “sporedna” stavka u zapisniku, ali u izbornoj forenzici mogu biti koristan signal. Intuicija je jednostavna: na biračkom mestu (BM) gde pobednička lista ostvaruje vrlo visok procenat, a broj nevažećih listića je neobično nizak ili čak nula, to može biti kompatibilno sa scenarijem u kome…

Reading Time: 6 minutes1. From the aggregate result to the internal structure of the vote The first part established the broad meaning of the Ada referendum result: the municipality voted clearly for “No”, and that outcome carries at least some political weight in the local context. But aggregate numbers do not tell us…

Reading Time: 13 minutesThe final part of the series explains how to interpret the “Blockaders/Chaos” and “Vučić/Stability” patterns without overstating the evidence, but also without ignoring its importance. 1. From models to interpretation: why the final step is the most sensitive In the previous three parts of the series, we built the analysis…

Reading Time: 12 minutesZavršni deo serijala objašnjava kako tumačiti obrasce „Blokaderi/Haos” i „Vučić/Stabilnost” bez preterivanja, ali i bez zanemarivanja važnosti nalaza. 1. Od modela ka tumačenju: zašto je završni korak najosetljiviji U prethodna tri dela serijala postepeno smo gradili analizu. Prvo smo objasnili zašto se politički značajne reči mogu posmatrati kao podaci. Zatim…

Reading Time: 6 minutes1. Od zbirnog rezultata ka unutrašnjoj strukturi glasanja Prvi deo je pokazao osnovno značenje referendumskog rezultata u Adi: opština je jasno glasala za „Ne”, a taj ishod ima i određenu političku težinu u lokalnom kontekstu. Ali zbirni brojevi ne govore kako je takav rezultat nastao. Da bi se to razumelo,…

Reading Time: 13 minutesFormal models confirm that the intensity of political terms increases during the election period, but also show that the two rhetorical frames follow different dynamics. 1. From descriptive findings to formal testing In the second part of the series, we saw a clear descriptive picture. The “Vučić AND Stability” frame…