Forenzika izbora

Reading Time: 8 minutesSerija „Prognoziranje izbornih rezultata: između statistike, politike i neizvesnosti” — Forenzika Izbora Nova serija: manje proricanja, više razumevanja Koliko će glasova osvojiti Studentska lista? Koliko lista koju predvodi Aleksandar Vučić? Ko će preći cenzus, ko će formirati vladu i, možda najvažnije pitanje u današnjoj Srbiji, čijem istraživanju javnog mnjenja treba…

Reading Time: 9 minutesEurope’s democratic landscape in 2025 cannot be divided neatly into countries that are democratic and countries that are not. The revised dataset instead reveals several distinct patterns: established democracies that have lost part of their previous strength, countries that have improved modestly from relatively weak starting positions, and a smaller…

Reading Time: 9 minutesDemokratska mapa Evrope u 2025. godini ne može se jednostavno podeliti na demokratske i nedemokratske države. Baza podataka pokazuje nekoliko različitih obrazaca: stabilne demokratije koje su izgubile deo nekadašnje snage, države koje su skromno napredovale sa relativno niskih početnih pozicija i manju grupu država čiji je pad temeljno promenio njihov…

Reading Time: 8 minutesA country can improve compared with its own past and still remain behind its neighbours. It can also retain one of the region’s strongest election administrations while losing ground in media freedom, public debate and the broader conditions of political competition. This is why the country-by-country perspective used in the…

Reading Time: 8 minutesDržava može napredovati u odnosu na sopstvenu prošlost, a ipak zaostajati za susedima. Može istovremeno imati jednu od najboljih izbornih administracija u regionu i gubiti pozicije u oblasti slobode medija, javne rasprave i širih uslova političke konkurencije. Zbog toga analiza pojedinačnih država iz prvog dela ove serije nije dovoljna. Da…

Reading Time: 9 minutesPart 2. From Emotion to Political Rhetoric: How the Speech Builds Its Message Is the speech positive or negative? A first look at the Bing sentiment dictionary produces an apparently surprising result. Of the words recognised by the lexicon, 197 are classified as positive and 144 as negative. That corresponds…

Reading Time: 8 minutesDeo 2. Od emocija do političke retorike: kako govor gradi svoju poruku Da li je govor pozitivan ili negativan? Bing rečnik sentimenta daje na prvi pogled neočekivan rezultat. Među rečima koje je rečnik uspeo da klasifikuje nalazi se 197 pozitivnih i 144 negativne. To znači 57,8% pozitivnih prema 42,2% negativnih…

Reading Time: 9 minutesAn election can be orderly without being fully democratic. Ballot papers may arrive on time, polling stations may open, votes may be counted correctly and official results may be published, yet citizens may still have been denied a genuinely equal opportunity to choose. One party may dominate television coverage. Public…

Reading Time: 7 minutesPart 1. From Words to Themes: Mapping the Vocabulary of a Political Speech Introduction: What can text analysis tell us about a political speech? Political speeches are designed not merely to transmit information. They construct stories, identify groups, assign responsibility, evoke emotions, recall selected episodes from the past and suggest…

Reading Time: 5 minutesIntroduction: why sentiment belongs to election forensics Election forensics is often associated with numbers: turnout, vote shares, invalid ballots, polling-station anomalies, unusual statistical patterns or inconsistencies between official databases and polling-station records. These are essential elements of electoral verification. However, election results are not produced only on election night. They…