Reading Time: 5 minutesUvod: izborna forenzika počinje pre izbornog dana Kada se govori o kontroli izbora, pažnja se najčešće usmerava na izborni dan: da li su biračka mesta otvorena na vreme, da li su zapisnici pravilno popunjeni, da li su glasovi tačno prebrojani i da li se zvanični…
Oznaka: Srbija
Od kutije do otvorenih podataka: kako izgleda krug izbornog integriteta
Reading Time: 3 minutesIzborni integritet ne počinje i ne završava se izbornim danom. On je krug u kome svaki korak mora ostaviti trag: glasanje, brojanje, zapisnik, objava podataka, nezavisna analiza, institucionalna provera i, kada je potrebno, pravni lek. Ako jedan deo tog kruga izostane, javnost ostaje u zoni…
Forenzički alati: Analiza nevažećih listića u forenzici izbora – Vodič za posmatrače i analitičare
Reading Time: 3 minutes1. Uvod Nevažeći listići su naizgled “sporedna” stavka u zapisniku, ali u izbornoj forenzici mogu biti koristan signal. Intuicija je jednostavna: na biračkom mestu (BM) gde pobednička lista ostvaruje vrlo visok procenat, a broj nevažećih listića je neobično nizak ili čak nula, to može biti…
What statistics can and cannot say about election language
Reading Time: 13 minutesThe final part of the series explains how to interpret the “Blockaders/Chaos” and “Vučić/Stability” patterns without overstating the evidence, but also without ignoring its importance. 1. From models to interpretation: why the final step is the most sensitive In the previous three parts of the…
Two election frames in numbers: “Blockaders/Chaos” and “Vučić/Stability”
Reading Time: 10 minutesDescriptive analysis shows that the “Vučić/Stability” frame had higher overall volume, while the “Blockaders/Chaos” frame was more explosive and strongly concentrated around election day. 1. From introduction to results: what descriptive statistics tell us first In the first part of the series, we explained why…
Dva izborna okvira u brojkama: „Blokaderi/Haos” i „Vučić/Stabilnost”
Reading Time: 9 minutesDeskriptivna analiza pokazuje da je okvir „Vučić/Stabilnost” bio učestaliji u ukupnom obimu, dok je okvir „Blokaderi/Haos” bio eksplozivniji i snažno koncentrisan oko izbornog dana. 1. Od uvoda ka rezultatima: šta nam deskriptivna statistika prvo kaže U prvom delu serijala objasnili smo zašto je korisno posmatrati…
Words as campaign signals: what daily counts reveal about political language
Reading Time: 10 minutesAn analysis of the Politics section of Kurir.rs shows how two rhetorical frames, “Blockaders/Chaos” and “Vučić/Stability”, can be tracked as daily time series. ‘Where I stopped – you will go!’‘What I couldn’t – you will do!’‘Where I couldn’t – you’ll arrive!’‘Whatever we owe – you…
Milošević, Putin, and Vučić: ruling rhetoric, models of power, and electoral unevenness – Part II
Reading Time: 14 minutesPART II. Comparative analysis of the three leaders Introductory paragraph to Part II: from theory to comparative analysis If the first part showed that authoritarian, semi-authoritarian, and hybrid regimes do not need to abolish elections in order to seriously damage the equality of political competition,…
Milošević, Putin i Vučić: retorika vlasti, modeli vladanja i izborna neravnopravnost – Deo II
Reading Time: 13 minutesDEO II. Uporedna analiza tri lidera Uvod u drugi deo: od teorijskog okvira ka uporednoj analizi Ako je u prvom delu pokazano da autoritarni, semi-autoritarni i hibridni režimi ne moraju ukidati izbore da bi ozbiljno narušili ravnopravnost političke utakmice, onda drugi deo treba da pokaže…
Milošević, Putin, and Vučić: ruling rhetoric, models of power, and electoral unevenness – Part I
Reading Time: 9 minutesPART I. Introduction and theoretical framework Introductory note to Part I: why a theoretical framework matters for this kind of analysis Before moving to the comparison of Milošević, Putin, and Vučić, it is necessary to establish a clear theoretical framework. Without it, the analysis could…