When 42% Is Not Just 42%: How a Poll Becomes a Political Rorschach Test

Reading Time: 6 minutesSeries: “Election Forecasting: Between Statistics, Politics, and Uncertainty” — Election Forensics This post continues my series on election forecasting, written for both specialists and readers who do not spend their evenings thinking about sampling frames, turnout models, and predictive distributions. I am currently preparing a…